Social Media Posts Could Predict Terrorist Acts

Researchers at the University of Bath have discovered a way to potentially identify individuals likely to commit terrorist acts by analysing their social media posts. By studying the online behaviour of convicted far-right terrorists and comparing them to those who held extremist views but did not commit violence, they identified specific patterns.

Posts that focused on logistics, weapons knowledge, and evading law enforcement were strong indicators of potential terrorist activity. These signals appeared up to four years before actual attacks. Surprisingly, discussions about far-right ideology and hateful views were less likely to precede violent actions.

This groundbreaking research, published in Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, could revolutionize counter-terrorism efforts. It offers a potential tool to prioritize monitoring resources on individuals most likely to pose a real-world threat, rather than wasting time on those who merely hold extremist views.

While this research offers promising potential, it's crucial to remember that it's just one piece of the puzzle. Law enforcement agencies will continue to rely on a combination of traditional intelligence gathering and advanced technological tools to combat terrorism effectively.

Dr Brown is seeking funding to apply the methods of this research to the January 6 Capitol Building riots in the USA, to understand more about the mechanisms of mobilisation.

She is also working with law enforcement to look at social media posts in the context of online forums - examining group interactions and creating a tool to analyse risk within social networks.